The politics of fear

As the events in Gaza take a turn for the worse, with partisan observers on both sides using the deaths of women and children as rhetorical bargaining chips. Recent polling of Palestinians demonstrates that the stabilising influence of outside mediators may be fuelling the problem.

Defenders of the Hamas government in Gaza point to their being elected, and yet the polls show that their opponents Fatah have more support inside Gaza than the government; 42% vs 33%.

Thus the events of the past ten days may be seen as Hamas attempting shore up its lack of political support by resorting to the stagnant politics of military action in the hope of provoking the Israeli’s into a disproportionate response. Thus gaining international sympathy and perhaps more importantly outrage from the Arab tweet.

This sterile tactic appeared to be working, when last night children playing football were killed seemingly by an Israeli mortar. Yet the bombing at a bus stop in Jerusalem, which has so far claimed the life of a woman, and injured two pregnant women, may have undermined this strategy of trading the lives of women and children for political legitimacy.

The situation is further complicated by the situation in Syria, where anti-government protests in Daraa have led to widespread violence and the reported killing of at least four people in a mosque when it was stormed by security forces. There are unconfirmed reports that the government crackdown is being aided by Hezbollah fighters from both within Syria and from neighbouring Lebanon.

This opens up the spectre of a return to the two-front politics of the intifada.

All of which bodes ill for the discussions between Hamas and President Abbas on unification of the two Palestinian enclaves, a move supported by only a third of the country if the concessions demanded by Hamas are included in any deal.

None of which will help the Abbas government’s attempts to have the Palestinian state recognised by the UN, a move that gained some traction by Israel and the West Bank government jointly co-sponsoring a resolution to have Libya removed from the UN Human Rights Commission last month.